Expansion of Shipping Danger Zones

Yemen’s Houthi rebels claim to have tested a new hypersonic missile, although the report has not yet been confirmed. This would give the militant group an improved capability to penetrate advanced air defences. The group also claimed Thursday (14 March) that it may begin attacking merchant shipping in the Indian Ocean, opening a new theatre of operations for the growing conflict. The Houthis’ deadliest weapon so far is its Iranian-supplied anti-ship ballistic missile inventory.

To date, Houthi forces have hijacked one ship, sunk another, and damaged about half a dozen more. Three seafarers have been killed, one has lost a leg, and several more have sustained other injuries.

Expanded Area of Operations
On Thursday (14 March), Abdul Malik al-Houthi pledged to expand the group’s area of operations into the Indian Ocean, and to attack the ships that have begun circumventing the Red Sea via the Cape of Good Hope.

“Our main battle is to prevent ships linked to the Israeli enemy from passing through not only the Arabian Sea, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, but also the Indian Ocean towards the Cape of Good Hope. This is a major step and we have begun to implement our operations related to it,” he said. The range between Houthi-held territory and the nearest Indian Ocean – Cape of Good Hope sea lane is more than twice as far away as the group’s current target area in the Gulf of Aden.

A week ago (08 March), the Houthis had highlighted that “our strikes are escalating.” U.S. Central Command appeared to confirm the trend, that during the week the Houthi fired at least five anti-ship ballistic missiles, including the strike on the MSC Sky II and the fatal attack on the True Confidence.

In possibly the largest single attack since they began targeting shipping, Yemen’s Houthi militants launched a massive barrage targeting American and other warships in both the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in the early morning hours of Saturday (09 March).

On Monday, Houthi forces continued their campaign against Red Sea shipping with the launch of two ballistic missiles at a Liberian-flagged merchant ship. At 0850 hours and again at 1250, Houthi militants launched anti-ship ballistic missiles at the Panamax boxship Pinocchio, off Saleef, Yemen. Neither missile hit the target, and the Pinocchio continued on its commercial voyage.   U.S. forces responded by destroying 18 Houthi missiles on the ground and taking out an unmanned underwater vessel.

About half of all traffic that previously would have used the Red Sea-Suez route is now diverting around the southern tip of Africa to avoid the risk of Houthi attack.

Piracy off Somalia
With the monsoon season over and emboldened by their recent successes, several Somalian pirate groups are thought to now be hunting other targets. The security operation Maritime Security Centre – Horn of Africa (MSCHoA) and EUNAVFOR Atalanta are speculating that as many as five groups are active from three camps in Somalia spread out between the north, centre, and south coast.

MSCHoA and EUNAVFOR are saying that the danger zone has been extended north of Eyl up to a distance of 1,000 nautical miles. They warn that the pirates are likely operating from mother boats scouting targets in favourable sea conditions for boarding.

On Thursday morning (14 March), the hijacked Bangladeshi bulker Abdullah anchored off Somalia after unconfirmed reports of a possible failed rescue mission. At the same time, multiple security agencies are cautioning that they believe the pirate groups are prowling the waters for more vessels – including possibly using the Navibulgar bulker Ruen they seized back in December 2023

Read our previous related article: The Red Sea – Shippers Need a Plan B.

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