While several air cargo pundits are viewing 2016 under a general cloud of gloom, HSBC Bank is seeing a sunnier horizon for global trade, based on findings from its latest Global Connections Trade Forecast and Trade Confidence survey.
China was a huge drag on world trade with its downturn in industrial production in the second half of 2015, but Asian economies will be the main drivers of global trade going forward, it says. Brazil and Russia have also been weak in 2015, but like China, HSBC said it sees the downturn as cyclical rather than structural. For this reason, the report is optimistic that stabilization in these countries could lay the foundation for a moderate uptick in world trade in 2016.
HSBC expects import volumes in the U.S. and Western Europe to expand by 5 to 6 percent in 2016, which will help shore up world trade. Singapore and Hong Kong suffered the largest declines in market confidence in 2015 as a reflection of the Asian slowdown. However Bangladesh is gaining ground, with the rising demand for clothing and apparel from Western markets.
There is also optimism for North America due to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Other important agreements include the WTO’s Trade Facilitation Agreement, which seeks to simplify customs procedures and is now up for ratification, and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, a proposed free-trade agreement between the EU and the U.S.
Source: http://aircargoworld.com/hsbc-sees-improved-world-trade-in-2016/ [Extract only]
